A month into this crisis, the Strait of Hormuz still is not operating like a normal shipping lane.
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The best way to describe it now is simple: this is no longer a full shutdown, but it is also not free navigation. Some ships are moving. Others are still waiting. And the rules appear to depend on who owns the vessel, where it is from, and how much political clearance exists behind the scenes. That is a very different market than the one tanker operators were dealing with before this conflict started.
In the early phase, traffic nearly froze. Since then, limited movement has returned, but not in a way that gives the market confidence. Iran has shown it can slow, filter, and influence passage through the world’s most important oil chokepoint. That matters because Hormuz handles roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows, so even partial disruption changes freight, routing, insurance, and risk pricing very quickly.
The overnight headlines may sound more positive. A two-week ceasefire has been announced, and oil prices reacted immediately by falling sharply. But shipowners are not treating that as a green light yet. Maersk said the ceasefire may create opportunities for some transits, but it still does not provide full maritime certainty. Hapag-Lloyd said that even if conditions stabilize, getting shipping networks back to normal could take six to eight weeks.
That is the key point for tanker markets this morning: the political headline improved faster than the operating environment did.
There is also a second issue developing. Reuters reported that Iran is proposing a system that would charge ships for passage through Hormuz as part of a broader peace arrangement. If that idea goes anywhere, the strait starts looking less like an open waterway and more like a controlled gate. Even if the legal case against that is strong, the market effect is the same: another layer of uncertainty, delay, and cost.
The worst-case panic of the first phase may be easing.
But this is still not a clean reopening. Backlogs remain, ships are still waiting for clarity, and carriers are still making route decisions based on security, not convenience. Reuters also reported that more than 1,000 ships remain stuck in the region, with 187 laden tankers carrying 172 million barrels still in the Gulf. Even under better conditions, clearing that backlog will take time.
For tanker investors, the message is straightforward:
Hormuz is not fully closed anymore. But it is not truly open either. And until operators believe passage is predictable, the freight market will keep pricing in disruption.
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