April closed with tanker spot rates holding the gains the sector built through the back half of the first quarter. The Q1 2026 earnings calendar opens this month, and the run rate that flows into prints is now mostly set. Owners with high spot exposure will report numbers that reflect a tape that stayed firm through choppy macro headlines. Owners with heavy time charter coverage (vessels locked into multi-month charters at fixed rates) will look pedestrian by comparison, but they will also avoid the second quarter softness that typically arrives with refinery turnarounds.
Here is what April looked like across the main asset classes, and how that shapes the Q1 reporting season.
Section 1. VLCC tape: TD3C and TD22 close the month firm
The VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier, the two million barrel class that hauls Middle East crude to Asia) finished April with the benchmark TD3C route, Middle East Gulf to China, settling in the mid forty thousand dollars per day range on a TCE basis (time charter equivalent, the daily revenue per ship after voyage costs). That is a step up 12 percent from where the route ran in early March, when seasonal Chinese refinery maintenance pulled volume out of the spot tape.
TD22, the US Gulf to China VLCC route that captures long haul Atlantic basin barrels heading east, closed even firmer. April averaged near sixty thousand dollars per day TCE. The wider TD3C to TD22 differential reflects a growing share of Atlantic basin crude moving to Asia. That is a structural ton mile (the distance crude travels multiplied by the barrels carried) story that has supported VLCC earnings for the entire post 2022 cycle.
April leaves Q1 reporting season set up for spot heavy beats and supplemental dividend headlines that will land louder than the underlying day rates.
For Q1 reporting, the VLCC prints will land on top of a quarter that ran hot on average. January and February delivered some of the strongest spot days the segment has seen since 2008. March cooled but still cleared the cash breakeven for every major operator with a margin to spare. Names with the highest VLCC spot day count will print the cleanest beats. DHT Holdings and Frontline carry the heaviest VLCC weighting in our coverage, and both should show TCE outcomes well above their twelve month moving averages.
The structural setup for the second quarter still looks supportive. The order book for VLCCs remains thin relative to the trading fleet. Newbuild deliveries scheduled for 2026 sit below replacement need given the average fleet age. The dark fleet (sanctioned tankers operating outside mainstream insurance and ownership) absorbs a meaningful share of supply that would otherwise compete for compliant cargo. None of that changes overnight.
Section 2. Suezmax and Aframax: the Hormuz risk premium is still in the price
The Suezmax (the one million barrel class that runs West African and Black Sea trades) and Aframax (the 750 thousand barrel class that runs short haul and US Gulf trades) sat at the high end of their twelve month ranges through April. TD20, West Africa to UK Continent, closed near forty seven thousand dollars per day TCE. TD6, Black Sea to Mediterranean, ran higher because Turkish Straits delays kept vessels tied up for longer than charterers wanted to pay for. TD25, US Gulf to UK Continent on Aframax, closed near forty thousand dollars per day TCE.
The cleaner read on Suezmax strength is what is happening at the Strait of Hormuz. The risk premium that built into Middle East routes after the spring tanker incidents has not faded. Insurance rates for tankers transiting the Persian Gulf stayed elevated through April. Some charterers are paying war risk surcharges that translate directly into higher gross fixtures even when the underlying day rate looks flat. That premium is real cash for owners with exposure.
The names with concentrated Suezmax and Aframax exposure will see this in their Q1 numbers. International Seaways carries the largest Suezmax fleet in our coverage. Teekay Tankers runs a Suezmax and Aframax mix with high spot exposure. Both should print Q1 TCE outcomes above the prior quarter. The question for the print is not whether the number is good. The question is whether the second quarter guide signals that owners think this premium holds, or whether they are quietly fading it.
Section 3. MR and LR2: product tankers heading into the May calendar
The MR tape (Medium Range, the 50 thousand deadweight ton workhorse that hauls clean petroleum products across the Atlantic and within Asia) was the one segment where April delivered some softness. TC2, UK Continent to US Atlantic Coast on MR, drifted into the low twenties of thousands of dollars per day TCE through the back half of the month. Seasonal turnaround at European refineries pulled clean volume out of the market faster than Asian arbitrage could replace it. The ARA storage build (storage at Amsterdam, Rotterdam, and Antwerp, the European clean products hub) capped any rally attempt.
The LR2 (Long Range 2, the 110 thousand deadweight ton class that runs naphtha and gasoil east of Suez) held up better. TC1, Middle East Gulf to Japan, closed near thirty five thousand dollars per day TCE. The east of Suez clean trades have a different supply dynamic. Refinery additions in the Middle East and India keep producing barrels that need to move east, and the LR2 fleet is the only class with the size to clear those flows efficiently.
For the May earnings calendar, this matters most for Scorpio Tankers, which carries the highest LR2 weighting in our coverage. STNG should print a Q1 TCE that reflects the LR2 strength, with MR pulling the average down only a few thousand dollars per day. Ardmore Shipping, with a heavier MR mix, will print a softer relative number but should still clear cash breakeven with room.
Section 4. What this all means for the Q1 print calendar
Earnings season opens with a tape that supports beats on the spot heavy names. Three things matter for how the tape reads.
First, the gap between operators with high spot exposure and those with heavy time charter coverage will be wide this quarter. Investors should compare TCE outcomes against the operator’s stated mix, not against a flat sector benchmark. A fifty thousand dollar per day VLCC print sounds great until you realize the operator covered eighty percent of its days at thirty seven thousand dollars per day on twelve month time charters signed last year.
Second, the supplemental dividend math becomes the headline for any operator with a payout formula tied to net income. International Seaways and DHT Holdings both run formula payouts. The April tape locks in numbers that translate into meaningful cash returns, assuming the formulas hold. Watch for any language in the Q1 release that hints at formula adjustments.
Third, the second quarter guide will move the stocks more than the Q1 print. The first quarter is in the rearview by the time companies report. What the market wants to know is whether April strength carries into May and June, or whether the seasonal soft patch arrives early. Operators with exposure to floating storage and dirty product trades should signal the strongest second quarter outlook.
Take the prints, watch the guides, and let the names with the cleanest second quarter setup separate from the field.
Section 5. Names to watch into the prints
Frontline reports first among the majors. The VLCC and Suezmax mix should produce the biggest absolute TCE number of the quarter. The dividend math will set the bar.
DHT Holdings runs a pure VLCC fleet with high spot exposure. The print should be the cleanest read on the VLCC quarter for the buy side.
International Seaways reports later in the calendar. The Suezmax exposure plus the MR fleet creates a dual lever, and the supplemental dividend formula gives the print built in optionality.
Scorpio Tankers brings the cleanest LR2 read. Watch for what the second quarter guide implies about east of Suez clean rates.
Teekay Tankers is the small cap with the highest beta to the Suezmax tape. The print will not move the sector, but it will move the stock.
Hafnia is the product tanker pure play, with a fleet weighted toward MR with LR1 exposure. The print will tell us whether the soft April MR tape was a blip or the start of a longer fade.
Section 6. Editorial take
April leaves Q1 reporting season set up for spot heavy beats and supplemental dividend headlines that will land louder than the underlying day rates. The risk is what comes next. The tape supports a constructive view into the print, but the second quarter guide is what tells you whether to add to positions or trim them. The bull case rides on rate persistence into May. The bear case is a faster than expected refinery return that floods the clean book and feeds back into the dirty side. Neither view changes the Q1 print itself. They change what the print is worth as a buy signal.
For now, the editorial stance is constructive into the prints, with a tilt toward spot heavy crude exposure and away from MR pure plays until the European refinery turnaround tail clears. We monitor the names with formula payouts most closely because that is where the largest single quarter cash returns will land.